縦書き文庫｢無宗教社会を生きる｣(執筆中)より

十九世紀後半から大日本帝國は<富國強兵>という名のもとにほぼ現在の中国やロシアに相当する国々と戦争をし、現在の台湾･韓国･北朝鮮を植民地にし中国東北部地域に満州まんしゅう國を樹立して版図はんとを拡張した。一九三十年代には中国内陸部と東南アジア地域に戦域を広げ、四十年代には米国と戦争するに至った。その過程で双方の兵が殺しあい、大日本帝國軍はこれら地域の人々の平和な生活を壊し人権を蹂躙じゅうりんして殺戮さつりくもした。

一方で五族協和を唱となえアジア解放を謳うたっていた。二〇二二年のロシアによるウクライナ侵攻とそのプロパガンダは、大日本帝國による侵攻と報道管制のようすを彷彿ほうふつとさせる。一九四五年八月に無条件降伏し、大日本帝國は瓦解がかいしたかにみえるが、その残滓ざんしは今も日本社会のどこかに温存おんぞんされている、と筆者は考える。

戦後、雨後の筍たけのこと形容されるように<新興宗教>が勃興ぼっこうした。多くは戦前の似非えせ宗教に対する反動ゆえに同じく非宗教であったが、人々は宗教も非宗教も区別できないまま盲目的に追随ついずいするか無宗教を決め込んだ。創価学会そうかがっかいはそんな時代に全国で折伏しゃくぶくという名の布教活動をくり広げた。その仏教運動は既存の仏教各派や神道キリスト教等を邪宗じゃしゅう邪教として一蹴いっしゅうした。人々は創価学会を略して｢学会｣と呼び、会員を｢学会員｣と呼んで忌いみ嫌ったが、その実像を理解している人は少ない。その大衆運動に驚き戸惑った人々は｢学会｣を忌いまわしい団体とし｢貧乏人と病人の集団｣と呼んで蔑さげすみ排斥した。この集団の勢いを恐れ、統率のとれた会員の表面的な活動だけをみて全体主義と評する者すらいた。

二〇二三年、日本社会に暮くらす多くの人々の｢宗教｣観は二十世紀後半からほとんど変わっていないのではないだろうか。いや、むしろ無宗教性がさらに深まり、スマフォ依存症とその延長上にある脳内露出症が蔓延まんえんしている。

戦前の天皇を中心とする国家神道に対する反動からだろう、｢無宗教｣がよしとされ普通とされる戦後の日本社会において、神社での祈祷きとうは｢信仰｣とは違うとされ、正月にはみな神社に参詣する。また、葬儀や法事には僧侶に読経どきょうしてもらい念仏を唱となえることが死者に対する弔とむらいであり通過儀礼とされている。戦前と同じようにいずれも｢信仰｣とは異なるものとして扱われるのだ。筆者は、仮説として現代日本社会を｢無宗教社会｣と呼ぶ。この作品もその仮説を前提している。

｢無宗教社会｣では、何かを｢信じる｣者は非科学的だとされ、｢信仰｣を持つ者は弱者として疎うとんじられる。｢信仰｣を説き、宗教団体に勧誘する者はうさん臭いものになってしまう。長いあいだ思想と情報の統制下に置かれ考える習慣を持たない人々は、これまでどおり自ら思考する力を失っていた。その状況は戦後八十年が経たとうとする現在も大きく変わってはいない。そんな人々の思考と信仰の真空域に｢学会｣が現れたのである。

｢学会員｣となることは｢信仰｣を持つことを宣言するだけではない。人々が習俗として取り込んできた既存の神仏を否定する。それを知りながら、경호ギョンホの母は｢学会員｣になった。周囲の人々に侮あなどられ陰口かげぐちをたたかれ、夫に嫌われながらも｢学会員｣になる選択をした。なぜだろう、何が彼女を仏教運動に赴おもむかせたのだろうか。この中説を通じて考えてみたいと思う。

“NON-RELIGIOUS SOCIETY” AS A HYPOTHESIS

From the latter half of the nineteenth century, under the name of “Wealth and National Strength,” the Japanese Empire went to war with countries that are roughly equivalent to today’s China and Russia, colonizing what is now Taiwan, Korea, and North Korea, and expanding its territory by establishing Manchukuo in the northeastern region of China. In the 1930s, it expanded its war areas into inland China and Southeast Asia, and in the 1940s, it went to war with the United States. In the process, soldiers from both sides killed each other, and the Imperial Japanese Army deprived the people of these regions of their customs and culture, violated their human rights, and slaughtered them. On the other hand, the Imperial Japanese Army advocated “harmony among the five races” and claimed the liberation of Asia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its propaganda are reminiscent of the invasion by the Empire of Japan and its control of the press. Although Japan surrendered unconditionally in August 1945 and the Empire of Japan seemed to have collapsed, I believe that the remnants of the Imperial Japanese Empire still exist in some parts of Japanese society. After the war, new religions sprang up like bamboo shoots after the rain. Many of them were non-religious as well, as a reaction against the false religions of the prewar period, but people blindly followed them without being able to distinguish between religion and non-religion, or decided to have no religion. In such an era, the Soka Gakkai spread its proselytizing activities, known as shakubuku, throughout the country. Its Buddhist movement kicked out existing Buddhist sects, Shintoism, Christianity, and other religions as paganism and pagan religions. People called the Soka Gakkai “Gakkai” for short and abhorred its members, calling them Gakkai members, but few people understood the true nature of the movement. People who were surprised and perplexed by the mass movement called the Gakkai an abominable organization and scorned and ostracized it, calling it “a group of poor and sick people.” Fearing the momentum of this group, some people even described it as totalitarianism based only on the superficial observations of its well-organized members. In 2023, the view of “religion” of many people in Japanese society had hardly changed from the late 20th century. Rather, irreligiousness has deepened further, and smartphone addiction and its extension, brain-exposure disorder, are widespread. In postwar Japanese society, where “irreligion” is considered acceptable and normal, perhaps as a reaction against the emperor-centered state Shinto of the prewar era, praying at shrines is considered different from “faith,” and everyone pays homage to shrines on New Year’s Day. In addition, at funerals and Buddhist memorial services, people are asked to recite sutras and chant the Buddhist prayer to the dead, which is considered a mourning and rite of passage for the deceased. As in the prewar period, these are treated as something different from “faith.” The author calls contemporary Japanese society a “non-religious society” as a hypothesis. This work is also based on that hypothesis. In a “non-religious society,” those who “believe” in something are considered unscientific, and those who have “faith” are marginalized as weak. Those who preach “faith” and invite people to join religious organizations are regarded as shady. People who have been under the control of ideas and information for a long time and who do not have the habit of thinking have lost the ability to think for themselves, as they always had been. This situation has not changed much in the 80 years since the end of World War II. The Gakkai appeared in the vacuum of people’s thoughts and beliefs as described above. Becoming a Gakkai member is not only a declaration of one’s “faith.” It is a denial of the existing gods and Buddha that people have taken in as a matter of custom. Knowing this, Gyungho’s mother became a Gakkai member. She made the choice to become a Gakkai member even though people around her belittled her, talked about her behind her back, and her husband disliked her. Why, I wonder, did she choose to become a member of the Buddhist movement? Through this essay, I would like to think about it.

Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator

QUOTE

U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

US-China Perception Monitor

3 days ago

Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. To read more by Hu, click here to read his article on “How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate domestic and international affairs?”

Written on March 5, 2022. Translated by Jiaqi Liu on March 12, 2022.

English

中文

English

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options. I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War 1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake. 2.  The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin. 3.  Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end. II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape 1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound. 2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front. 3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights. 4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems. III. China’s Strategic Choice 1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively. 2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue. 3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China. 4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

UNQUOTE

中文

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2021年7月に｢縦書き文庫｣というサイトを知り、以前に書いた習作や拙論などを一部編集し同文庫に載せてきた。掲載作は次のとおりである。同文庫が擁する文学作品も少しずつ読んでいる。縦書きを勧めてくれた菊地明範先生に深く感謝している。先生とは1999年以来のお付き合いで、2008-20年に開催されたクムホアシアナ杯｢話してみよう韓国語｣大会の立ち上げからご一緒した。

シリーズ	題名	字数
	無宗教社会を生きる(執筆中)
未定	記憶のかけら拾遺しゅうい: 個人史の試み	10,308
ハイジン教徒	老人たちよ異界いかいでタンゴを舞うな	15,607
ハイジン教徒	電車という名の動く寺院 mobile temples	14,181
未定	翻訳: 忘れられた女性민갑완ミンカブァン [2023年予定]	3,492
論考 Review Japan	明治期の欧米崇拝と排外意識	55,178

芥川龍之介(1892-1927)の遺書といわれる｢或旧友へ送る手記｣を読んだ。昨年末、若い女性歌手の自殺らしき事件をめぐって娘と話していると、唐突に芥川の自殺を｢ふつうの人々｣がどう受け止めたか、尋ねられたからだ。すぐに答えることはできなかった。

冒頭に触れた若い女性歌手の自殺に関連し、篠田博之氏が自殺報道のあり方について投稿した文章を読んだ。報道のあり方を批判的に捉えていて、大いに共感するところがあった。さらに検索すると、金孝順2013が植民地朝鮮における受容について論考を公開していたので読んだ。当時の｢ふつうの人々｣で想定される日本人とは隔たった人々であるが、参考になると思って読んだ。

冒頭、関口安義1994の文章を引用している。やや誇張されているように思うが引用する。大日本帝国時代の話ではあるが、メディアの報道ぶりが国の戦争拡大へのムード作りの機能を担っていることを改めて思わざるを得ない。

…(1927.7.25)中央の新聞ばかりでなく、地方の新聞もすべてが重大ニュースとして芥川の死の模様を記事にした。社会面を全面つぶしでの報道が多く、衝撃の大きさを物語っている…芥川の死に関する新聞報道は翌日以後も続き、翌月末に至る。地方新聞も含めると、その量は厖大なものとなろう。後追いの自殺もかなりある。

…週刊誌も｢週刊朝日｣と｢サンデー毎日｣が龍之介の死の特集を組んだ。(略) 1927年9月号の雑誌は競って芥川龍之介特集を行っている。｢文芸春秋｣｢中央公論｣｢改造｣｢新潮｣｢文章具楽部｣｢女性｣｢婦人公論｣｢三田文学｣などが特集を組んだ。ここに実に多くの人々が様々な角度から芥川龍之介とその文学に発言することになる…

これを読んで、1970年11月の三島由紀夫(1925-70)の自殺を思い出した。当時、大学に行かず渋谷の大型書店でバイトしていた僕は、帰りに渋谷駅で配られていた号外を貪るように読み、いつになく興奮していた。帰宅すると、どのテレビも事件の報道一色だった、と記憶している。その後、三原山が噴火したとき、東北大震災のときも同じ動画がすべての放送局から流れていた。いまはコロナ禍一色だ。そもそも日本社会はいつもそうだが、再び1927年に戻ろう。

1926年12月に大正から昭和に改元した大日本帝国はどんな状況にあったのか。23年9月関東大震災、同年12月皇太子、30年11月浜口雄幸に対する襲撃事件が続いている。28年6月の張作霖爆殺事件、31年9月の柳条湖事件と続き、大日本帝国は32年3月の満洲帝国建国へと進んでいった。32年5･15、36年2･26を挟んで37年7月盧溝橋事件により本格的に中国を侵略していく。38年4月には国家総動員法が公布された。年表はこのような事件を記している。

聡明で神経衰弱を病んでいたという芥川が、戦争へ突き進む時代の重圧を鋭敏に感じていたことは想像に難くない。芥川を近しく感じていた萩原朔太郎(1886-1942)の｢芥川龍之介の死｣も読んだ。望郷の詩人とカミソリの刃のような小説家は似ているところがあり、かなり親しく交わっていた。伊豆の温泉宿で芥川の訃報を聞いた朔太郎は呆然とさまよい歩いたという。小説家が自殺する数日前に会っていながら、話を尽くせなかったことを悔いている。朔太郎も｢ぼんやりした不安｣を共有していたろう。

｢ふつうの人々｣という、いっけん容易に考えられそうな対象を捉えることのむずかしさについて改めて考えさせられた。独立した精神と卓越した観察力がなければ、それを捉えることはできない。未いまだ僕にはそんな能力が備わっていないようだ。